Amidst the ongoing rainfall deficit, the weather forecast for Jammu and Kashmir has predicted a two-day wet spell starting on Tuesday, February 19. Dr. Mukhtar Ahmad, Director of the Meteorological (MeT) Department, stated that the Union Territory will experience generally cloudy weather, with light to moderate rain and snow expected across many areas from the evening of the 19th to late afternoon on the 20th. The onset of a fresh Western Disturbance is set to bring these weather changes.
Dr. Ahmad highlighted that the plains of Jammu and Kashmir could see light to moderate rain, accompanied by thunder and gusty winds at some places. In higher reaches, including Chenab Valley and South Kashmir, moderate snowfall of up to 10 inches is anticipated, while higher elevations of North and Central Kashmir could receive snow accumulation of around 8 inches.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif Keng also confirmed the onset of the fresh Western Disturbance, which will develop over Afghanistan on February 19 and move toward Jammu and Kashmir by February 20, bringing widespread rain and snow to the region.
Keng noted that initial precipitation will begin in the higher reaches late on February 19, gradually intensifying as it spreads across the region. Most parts of Jammu and Kashmir are expected to experience a moderate spell of rain and snow, with the possibility of heavier precipitation in certain areas.
He also pointed out that Jammu region may see higher precipitation levels than Kashmir Valley. The Chenab Valley districts – Ramban, Kishtwar, and Doda – are likely to experience moderate to heavy precipitation. In the Kashmir Valley plains, rain may dominate, but a sharp drop in temperature could transition it to snowfall, particularly during prolonged periods of heavy precipitation.
Temperature forecasts suggest that while temperatures will range between 15-18°C on February 19, they are expected to dip below 7°C on February 20. The Pir Panjal range is also expected to experience heavy snowfall, particularly affecting areas like Gulmarg, Sinthan Top, Peer Ki Gali, and parts of the Mughal Road.
Due to the warmer temperatures, lightning and thundershowers are expected, particularly in the Jammu region. There is also a risk of shooting stones and landslides along the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway on February 20. The weather is expected to improve starting February 21.
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